Avertissement de 2006

5 août 2008

Je viens de compiler quelques données alarmantes sur l’économie et la situation actuelle américaine. Il y a lieu de s’inquiéter mais, ce n’est pas parce les avertissements ne nous sont par parvenus… Depuis 3 ou 4 ans, les ménages n’épargnent plus mais dépensent. Ajoutez de l’inflation et du chômage et le cocktail est explosif!

January 2006. BALTIMORE, MD – The U.S. savings rate has turned negative, meaning Americans are spending more than they earn for the first time since the Great Depression. That’s no coincidence, warns a bestselling author, and it’s a clear sign that the economy could be weaker than expected in 2006.

According to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the personal savings rate – a tally of Americans’ unspent income – was a negative 0.2 percent in November. In all, Americans spent $39 billion more than they earned.

“There’s only one way to do that,” says Addison Wiggin, NY Times bestselling author of Empire of Debt: The Rise of an Epic Financial Crisis. “By going deeper into debt.”

Wiggin says that most of the borrowed money has come from homeowners drawing on their home equity as a source of cash. And while that money has helped boost the economy – the U.S.’s output of goods and services to grow at an attractive 4.3 percent in the third quarter of 2005 – Wiggin warns the trend will be short lived.

“People think they are getting richer because they have money to spend – but it’s really borrowed money. What really makes a person, or a nation, rich is not spending – it’s saving.”

It’s a lesson many investors may learn the hard way, Wiggin says.

“If house prices fall, or flatten out, the cycle of refinancing that has allowed to consumers to borrow and spend will be broken. Once that happens, homeowners will have no choice but to slow their consumption.”

The effect on the economy could be dramatic. “In the United States, household consumption is 71 percent of GDP. So if consumption dries up, the rest of the economy will follow suit. It just gets worse when you consider that Americans are so deeply in debt and don’t have savings to fall back on.”

While Wiggin doesn’t know exactly how much longer Americans can continue the cycle of spending more than they earn, he predicts that consumers will be tightening their purse strings in the near future.

“This rate of consumer spending is unsustainable,” he says. “And a weaker economy in 2006 is a very grim possibility.”

For more from Addison Wiggin, see http://dailyreckoning.com

Addison Wiggin is editorial director and publisher of The Daily Reckoning. He is also the co-author, along with Bill Bonner, of the recently released New York Times bestseller, Empire of Debt: The Rise of an Epic Financial Crisis.

Brought to you by Agora Financial, and written by the NY Times bestselling authors, Bill Bonner and Addison Wiggin, The Daily Reckoning is a daily, free e-letter that weaves information about the financial world, investing and everyday life into an educational and entertaining format that has been engaging their readers for over six years.

SOURCE www.dailyreckoning.com

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Par Fabien Major

Rédacteur en chef

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